Richards effect
The phenomenon in which polls consistently underestimate support for female candidates relative to white male candidates. The termed was coined by political scientists Christopher Stout and Reuben Kline who noted that in the 1990 Texas gubernatorial race many polls predicted Clayton Williams (R) to beat Ann Richards (D) by as much as 8 points. However, [...]
Incumbent Rule
A rule of thumb used by pollsters that says incumbents rarely get a higher percentage in the election than they receive in polls, and that voters still undecided on the very last poll tend to “break” disproportionately for the challenger. Michael Barone: “The assumption has been that voters know an incumbent, and any voter who [...]
Bradley effect
A theory that seeks to explain discrepancies between opinion polls and election outcomes when a white and black candidate run against each other. Newsweek: “The Bradley effect is named after Tom Bradley, the former Los Angeles mayor who, in 1982, narrowly lost a bid to become California’s governor after having led substantially in the polls. [...]
psephology
The scientific study and statistical analysis of elections and voting. The term was coined in 1952 by Oxford Professor R. B. McCallum and is derived from the Greek word psephos, which means pebble, and references the pebbles used by the Ancient Greeks to cast their votes.
push poll
A push poll a seemingly unbiased survey that is actually conducted by supporters of a particular candidate that intends to disseminate negative or misleading information about an opponent. Its intent is primarily to distribute propaganda rather than to understand the views and opinions of the public. Stuart Rothenberg notes push polls “are really advocacy calls [...]
exit polls
An exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately as they leave the polling place in which they are asked which candidate they chose. Exit polls are conducted by media companies to get an early indication of who actually won an election, as the actual result sometimes may take many hours to determine.